Stop One · Nov 2025
Full defense
Gold 40 · Stables 40 · Bitcoin 20
Every Call, Placed
Before The Market Moved.
Fourteen sessions, published in advance and left on the record - chart, tickets, and the memo or script each one was checked against.
14
Sessions Tracked
13
Settled
1
Live
+43 points
Edge vs. Hold · Nov 2025 - Apr 2026
+12.5%
Realized · Gold, Aug
+25-28%
Unrealized · BTC Position
The Whole Year On One Chart
The horizontal lines were drawn in November. The price came to them.
- Bitcoin
- Gold
- Level filled
- Still waiting
- Order executed
Swipe the chart sideways →
Price path from public market data. Levels as published at the Summit on the dates shown, and never moved since.
The Direction Of Travel
Gold holds at 40 throughout. The number that moves is Bitcoin, from 20 to 40, funded out of Stablecoins.
Stop Two · You Are Here
Bitcoin building
Gold 40 · Bitcoin 30 · Stables 30
Stop Three · Next Target
Build complete
Gold 40 · Bitcoin 40 · Alts 10 · Stables 10
The Destination
Not drawn yet
No step past the next target gets drawn until the market earns it.
The Dossier · Fourteen Sessions
One file per Summit. The ticket as it was written on stage, the market's answer, and the lesson that came out of it - all on the same page.
14
Sessions tracked
14
Source-verified
7
Levels filled
0
Levels moved after
238
Days held
DM Call · #0114Nov 2025
“We're going defensive. 40% gold, 40% stables, 20% Bitcoin - selling into strength.”
Placed live on stage · Nov 20, 2025 · Bitcoin above $90,000 · Fear & Greed at 15
The Lesson
Capital preserved during a drawdown is capital deployed at the bottom.
SettledDM Summit · Nov 2025
- The call
- Sold into strength. Moved to Gold 40 · Stables 40 · Bitcoin 20, and published the exit ladder at $93k, $95k and $98k - stretch targets $103k and $105k - before leaving the stage.
- The market
- November closed as Bitcoin's worst month of the year, down 17%. The 50-week moving average was never reclaimed.
- Levels
- Ladder published, nothing filled yet. Re-accumulation levels set at $81k, $72k and $62k. Gold accumulation levels at $4,000, $3,700 and $3,400.
REALIZED
+22%
Full ladder against -21% for doing nothing, measured through Apr 2026. Cross-check: the $90K quoted on stage against a $90,394 November close.
The call that set up everything after it. Tracked to April 2026, the full ladder read +22% against −21% for doing nothing.
Source verified
Script: “MIS - Mid-Nov,” Nov 17 2025. External check: StatMuse Nov 2025 close data.
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DM Call · #0115Dec 2025
“One year ago Bitcoin was at $106,000. Since then it reached $126,000, a new peak - and gold had its best year since 1979.”
Placed live on stage · Dec 15, 2025
The Lesson
We don't panic sell at the low. We trim into the bounce.
SettledDM Summit · Dec 2025
- The call
- Never sell into a red candle. Wait for the relief bounce and let the standing orders do the work. Also published a self-audit of 150 predictions made across 2025, with the misses named.
- The market
- The bounce arrived. Bitcoin ran off the $81,000 low into the low nineties, topping out on December 9, then faded.
- Levels
- 3 of 6 exits filled - $88k, $93k and $95k. $98k, $103k and $105k untouched. Gold's first accumulation level filled at $4,000.
DISCIPLINE
On plan
Over half the book trimmed on the bounce, zero deviation from the November plan. Cross-check: the $126,000 peak matches a verified all-time high of $126,198 on Oct 6 2025.
More than 50% of the ladder exited on schedule - zero deviation from a plan set five weeks earlier.
Source verified
Script: “MIS - Mid December,” Dec 15 2025. External check: CoinMarketCap ATH reporting.
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DM Call · #0116Jan 2026
“Bitcoin ended 2025 down 6% after a 125% surge in 2024. That's more time to accumulate, not a setback.”
Placed live on stage · Jan 13, 2026 · “The Exponential Age”
The Lesson
Venezuela isn't just news. It's a preview.
SettledDM Summit · Jan 2026
- The call
- No change. The condition for rotating back into altcoins was written down and unambiguous: two weekly closes above the 50-week average at $102,000. Nothing else counted.
- The market
- 2025 in full: Bitcoin -6%, Ethereum -11%, altcoins -36%, Nasdaq +19%, gold +66%, stablecoin pools around 13%. Bitcoin never reached $102,000.
- Levels
- None filled. Accumulation levels published at $81k, $72k, $62k and $50k.
DISCIPLINE
Held
Every reason to call the bottom arrived, and the answer was a number instead of a feeling. Cross-check: Bitcoin's real 2025 return was -5% to -6%, matching the figure quoted on stage.
Framework held unchanged through a geopolitical shock most narrators would have reacted to.
Source verified
Script: “MIS Mid-Jan,” Jan 13 2026. External check: 2025 open/close prices.
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DM Call · #0117Feb 2026
“Capital preserved during downturns compounds through every recovery that follows”
Placed live on stage · Feb 12, 2026 · all three scenarios run live from a $100,000 start
The Lesson
Nobody in the mainstream space could explain the real reason.
SettledDM Summit · Feb 2026
- The call
- Named the two structural causes of the crash - the yen carry unwind and the hyper-financialization of Bitcoin through IBIT options - and published the $60k to $100k range framework with $80,000 as the line.
- The market
- The digital asset market lost more than 20% in two weeks. Bitcoin fell to $69,000, blue chip altcoins fell 40%, Gold returned 25%.
- Levels
- Re-accumulation levels filled at $81,000 and $72,000 on the way down.
REALIZED
+12% / +6.6% / -24.3%
From the same $100,000 start: HODL $75,700 (-24.3%), immediate defensive $106,600 (+6.6%), full ladder $112,075 (+12%). Same market, three outcomes - each figure read straight off the memo's own table.
The defensive 40/40/20 allocation returned +6.6% across the same window a HODL portfolio lost 24.3%.
Source verified
Memo, full text read. Bitcoin near $69K sits inside the $65K-$77K range reported that week.
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DM Call · #0118Feb 2026
“If conflict happens, we have dry powder. If it doesn't, we have skin in the game.”
Placed live on stage · Feb 26, 2026 · two weeks before the Iran escalation
SettledDM Summit · Feb 2026
- The call
- Flagged Middle East conflict risk before it materialised, and reaffirmed the $70,000 to $80,000 Bitcoin range unchanged from a fortnight earlier.
- The market
- US carriers repositioning in the Middle East, with the AI “Ghost GDP” debate framing the macro backdrop.
- Levels
- Gold levels restated and unmoved: $4,720, $4,500, $4,000, $3,700.
DISCIPLINE
Called early
The risk was named two weeks before it hit the tape, and not one published level was changed to accommodate it.
Source verified
Memo, full text read. No independent Bitcoin price check run for this date.
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DM Call · #0119Mar 2026
“Gold isn't broken. It's being used for something else right now.”
Placed live on stage · Mar 12, 2026
The Lesson
Gold isn't broken. It's being used for something else right now.
SettledDM Summit · Mar 2026
- The call
- Read Bitcoin's 17% jump as a $1.2 billion short squeeze rather than returning demand, and called flat gold a margin-call effect rather than a broken thesis. Held the defensive line.
- The market
- The squeeze faded, as squeezes do. Oil spiked to $120 then eased to $90. April rate cut odds collapsed from 90% to below 15%.
- Levels
- None filled. Price sat between the $62,000 bid and the $80,000 line all month.
DISCIPLINE
Held
A 17% rally most of the market read as a bottom. Anyone who chased it bought the high of the quarter.
No panic reallocation was needed - the mechanical explanation for the anomaly held up within days.
Snippet-level
Memo excerpt only - content verified, no full document read or price cross-check.
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DM Call · #0120Apr 2026
“The All-Weather framework means we don't need to pick.”
Placed live on stage · Apr 16, 2026 · “Two Paths, One Framework”
SettledDM Summit · Apr 2026
- The call
- Laid out both outcomes of a Strait of Hormuz blockade side by side and showed that stablecoins and gold do their job in either one. No reallocation.
- The market
- Global oil supply fell to roughly 97 million barrels a day, the largest monthly drop on record.
- Levels
- None filled. Published levels carried forward untouched.
DISCIPLINE
Held
Two futures rehearsed on paper, one position held. The framework decided the answer before the news did.
Snippet-level
Memo excerpt only - content verified, no full document read or price cross-check.
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DM Call · #0121Apr 2026
“We do not move on prediction. We move on confirmation”
Placed live on stage · Apr 30, 2026
The Lesson
We do not move on prediction. We move on confirmation.
SettledDM Summit · Apr 2026
- The call
- Rather than call a bottom at maximum fear, published the four conditions that would have to confirm one, and committed to acting only when the market answered them.
- The market
- Fear and Greed hit 8 out of 100. Bitcoin bottomed near $67,000 then ran above $77,000. None of the four signals confirmed.
- Levels
- None filled. Gold eased into the $4,720 to $4,500 band - accumulation levels to scale into rather than trims.
REALIZED
+22% / +15% / -21%
Ladder $122K, defensive-only $115K, do-nothing $79K, from the same $100K start. Verbatim from the stage: “36-point gap… 43-point gap… worth $36K to $43K on a $100K portfolio.”
Published the full scorecard: +22% on the ladder, +15% on defensive-only, −21% doing nothing - same market, three outcomes.
Source verified
Script, full text read: “MIS - End-April,” Apr 30 2026.
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DM Call · #0122May 2026
“The chair changes tomorrow. The pressure on the chair does not.”
Placed live on stage · May 14, 2026 · Powell to Warsh handover
The Lesson
The chair changes tomorrow. The pressure on the chair does not.
SettledDM Summit · May 2026
- The call
- With Bitcoin at the midpoint of the range and four altcoins finally rallying, called it a window to trim rather than a turn. Ladder out toward target weight, let the rest run.
- The market
- Bitcoin peaked above $81,000 mid-month, then slid to roughly $67,000 as yields climbed. ONDO, SUI, TAO and HYPE gave a rare exit window before it closed.
- Levels
- None filled. Predetermined levels reiterated: $82k, $72k, $62k, $51k.
DISCIPLINE
Held
A new Fed Chair arrived and the position did not move, because a headline is not a signal. Bitcoin fell roughly $14K over the two weeks after the trim window was called.
Resisted the exact FOMO buy members were asking about, live, during the most-watched Fed transition of the year.
Snippet-level
Memo excerpt only (OCR-degraded but readable) - no independent price check.
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DM Call · #0123May 2026
“Bond yields are the gravitational force in markets right now.”
Placed live on stage · May 28, 2026
SettledDM Summit · May 2026
- The call
- Named the mechanism behind the slide rather than reacting to it. No reallocation.
- The market
- Bitcoin slid from $81,000 toward $77,000 as 10-year Treasury yields climbed.
- Levels
- None filled. The May ladder stood as published two weeks earlier.
DISCIPLINE
Held
Explaining a drawdown is not the same as trading it. The cause was named on camera and the book stayed still.
Snippet-level
Memo excerpt only - content verified, not a full document read.
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DM Call · #0124Jun 2026
“Before 40/40/20, now 40/30/30 - gold near 40%, Bitcoin near 30%, stablecoins near 30%. From here, that is the number we will use.”
Placed live on stage · Jun 25, 2026 · “The Tide Is Turning”
The Lesson
High in the range, we sell. Low in the range, we buy.
SettledDM Summit · Jun 2026
- The call
- Ratified the first allocation shift in seven months, to Gold 40 · Bitcoin 30 · Stables 30. Not a decision made in June, just the arithmetic of orders resting since November.
- The market
- Gold eased toward $5,000 an ounce while steady Bitcoin buying continued. Roughly $1 trillion came off US equities in a single day, the Nasdaq's largest points drop in history.
- Levels
- Gold's $4,000 rung filled, restoring the 40% weight.
DISCIPLINE
Held / Bought
Bitcoin's weight moved 20 to 30, bought at prices chosen seven months earlier, with nobody at a desk on the day. The 40/30/30 figure is verbatim from the memo.
Bought directly into the panic most members were selling into that same week.
Source verified
Memo, full text read: “The Tide Is Turning,” Jun 25 2026.
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DM Call · #0125Jul 2026
“We set our levels once, with a clear head, and then leave them alone.”
Placed live on stage · Jul 30, 2026 · “Nothing Surprised Them”
The Lesson
The $62,000 buy order, placed weeks before it mattered, filled during the July 1 flush to $57,700 - within a few percent of the floor called back in February.
SettledDM Summit · Jul 2026
- The call
- Bitcoin to 40%, half by DCA and half by resting orders, with alts capped at 3% per name. Then all three ways the year could end were rehearsed month by month to December 31, with no probabilities attached.
- The market
- Bitcoin flushed to $57,700 on July 1, the cycle low, then recovered. The Fed held on a 9 to 3 vote with three dissenters wanting a hike, and the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high.
- Levels
- The $62,000 bid filled in the flush, moving roughly three points from Stablecoins into Bitcoin. Gold's $4,000 rung filled alongside it.
POSITION - OPEN
On plan
238 days between going defensive and the order filling at a price set on day one. Cross-check: the $57,700 low sits $132 from an independently reported 52-week low of $57,832.
238 days of patience converted into the first new allocation step since the original call.
Source verified
Memo, full text read: “Nothing Surprised Them,” Jul 30 2026. External check: Investing.com 52-week range.
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DM Call · #0126Aug 2026
“Friday came for this portfolio and found every order waiting exactly where we left it”
Placed live on stage · Aug 13, 2026 · “The Rerun” · founders off the grid
The Lesson
The buyer of last resort finally said it out loud: “We are going to make a market in these.”
SettledDM Summit · Aug 2026
- The call
- Filed the week's evidence into the third scenario and changed nothing. The Four Questions scoreboard still read zero of four, the same count as April.
- The market
- Aug 7 jobs: -23,000 against +80,000 expected, the first outright loss since February, with September hike odds falling 58% to 44%. July CPI on Aug 12 landed in line at 3.4% headline, 2.5% core. PPI on Aug 13 came in at 0.0% against 0.2% expected. Bitcoin traded $62,700 to $65,300 all week.
- Levels
- None filled. The $62,000 bid came within roughly $700 in jobs week and roughly $300 on CPI/PPI day. Gold's $4,500 trim and $3,700 add both untouched.
POSITION - OPEN
Held
Nothing changed and nothing needed to. The $62,000 order filled once on July 1 and remains a standing trigger - August simply never retested it.
The most recent Summit - tracking in real time, not yet settled.
Source verified
Script: “The Rerun,” Aug 13 2026, provided directly. Next Summit: Aug 27 2026.
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DM Call · #0127Aug 2026
“We are going to make a market in these.”
Placed live on stage · Aug 27, 2026 · “The Buyer of Last Resort”
In play
- The call
- Held 40 / 40 / 10 / 10 with the Four Questions scoreboard still reading zero of four. Gold's next levels restated at $4,720 and $5,000, and the first alt ladder published in full: Ethereum $2,200 / $1,700 / $1,300, Solana $91 / $73 / $51, HYPE $77 / $64 / $51, TAO $240 / $220 / $200, Zcash $755 / $622 / $474 - accumulation only at the levels, trim when the sleeve runs above 10%.
- The market
- The Aug 13 $25B 30-year auction awarded at 5.216%, the highest since 2001. Treasury answered by doubling buybacks from $2B to $4B+ per operation starting Sept 9, with Bessent saying outright he would make a market in long bonds. Bitcoin's Aug 14 low printed $62,660. Gold ETFs took roughly $2.6B of net inflows, the largest day since May.
- Levels
- Gold trimmed back at $4,500 - from roughly 43% of the book back to the 40% target, per Tan's own figures live on stage. Bitcoin sits around 34-35% against its 40% target (the $51,000 level never filled), Stablecoins above 10%, and the 10% alt sleeve published but still at 0%.
REALIZED
+12.5%
Realized on the gold tranche: bought $4,000, sold $4,500, pure arithmetic on two confirmed prices. Separately, the July $62,000 Bitcoin buy remains open and unsold - unrealized gain is roughly +25-28% versus BTC around $77,700-79,500 this week, a snapshot that moves until sold, not a fixed number.
Source verified
Deck and memo, both read in full: “The Buyer of Last Resort,” Aug 27 2026. External check: Treasury 30-year auction results, Aug 13 2026.
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